Welcome 2007

Happy New Year!! What a splash it was! I am sure you know what I am talking about. The iPhone; sure enough. Steve Jobs rattled everybody with Apple's new creation. Even with all the expectations, the hoopla, the rumours, the real thing went far beyond anything people had expected, to say the least. If you haven't read about it, the iPhone is simply remarkable. Go check it out. It pumps in fresh air in the crowded space of the "zillions phone/smartphones" today in the market.

Okay well, the iPhone is great. But would it help Apple investors? The stock just jumped more than 8% today. Should I say anything more. Well, what about people who are going to jump in tomorrow? Is the water going to be warm and safe? At least most analysts are gaga about that. They are assuring the investors that the water is going to be very warm. Many have price targets above $100.

I think that the iPhone will be a great hit. But I also think there is a "will" factor. Let me explain that. The iPhone was shown today. Nobody is going to have a clue till what, about 5 months from now. From now till then lets see what we have - two earnings cycles (one as early as next week), a big stock options probe yet to be fully sorted out, the weak consumer pinched by housing (are they going to have the will and money to buy the $499-$599 thing), slowing demand across the globe (aren't commodity prices sliding, if not crashing?). And by the way, along with this, there is the short memory of the markets - forget the iPhone and heed the earnings report they would say next week (who cares what happens in 5 months from now).

The bottom line is - Apple is a great company, but you will be happy on the sidelines for now than jumping in. Too much speculation drives a stock nuts, which is what happened today (and recently) and may keep on happening for a while. The real time to bet on Apple is when all the hype dies down and it settles peacefully - how about after a correction. Then you can gear yourself for a yearend showdown! (I hope you don't forget 2006).